theres something rotten in the state of Flash Lite...

This whole discussion came up when we were discussing the merits of trying to use XML socket connections and FL 2.1. Suddenly one of us asked the very good question of how many phones out there actually can do this. The answer is 7 Nokia models on the market in Denmark. We think. And that last thought is the reason for this post...

So what is the truth - and why is it so hard to come by?

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pjKq2RPI6RF5DdBv4hP1AGw&hl=en

Here we have tried to compare some different sources of information about FL implementation on different OEM's and different models. As the basis we have used Bill Perrys overview chart, the OEMS (Nokia and Sony Ericsson) webpages and WURFL.

As is plainly obvious there is no truth. If you compare for instance Bills otherwise really cool FL penetration chart with the official Sony Ericsson charts on the webpage there is absolutely no connection between them. And the same goes for every other source of data out there. There seems to be alot of half truths flying about...

And this puzzles me. Because as I see it it's not as if this is state secrets? Or rocket science? It's a fairly limited list of data... And there has to be some Adobe/Nokia/SE databases out there that contain the absolute thruth and it should be possible to deliver this to all of us developers who need this information in the best, most stable manner as possible like a junkie needs a fix.

As I detailed in a previous post penetration is one of the really tough things we have to deal with at the moment - and generating more doubt for us in this area just makes this task of convincing clients to go with an FL solution that much more daunting...

My point being that it's hard enough because of the carriers reluctance to try new things and the OEM's reluctance to help push any one particular technology. This is something that should not have to be an issue. The complete list of exactly what phones that are live today and exactly what FL capabilities they have should be in some database somewhere and we could all benefit from having this one source of data publicly available as it would be very convincing towards our new clients. I am not sure if this is something Adobe would have available - but they should have in my opinion. Maybe I am wrong?

The effect of this is staggering. Or at least could be. As we develop all sorts of cool redirection mechanisms to ensure users get great experiences based on what handset they have we could end up with a user having just bought the brand new Nokia whatever model with FL 3 and all sorts of coolness and he would end up being redirected to a really boring unengaging WAP experience because we do not have access to the most current data and probably will never have unless someone starts sharing this info in an intelligent dynamic way with the world...

So I am hoping we could see some responses to this post from Adobe, Nokia or Sony Ericsson. And if there is a good reason why this is so hard to accomplish I would love to hear it so I can go on ranting about other more constructive stuff :-)

London

So right now I am sitting at a hotel in London. Been here since yesterday morning and it's been 2 really hectic days. Yesterday I had meetings with first a client (yeah a "real world paying money for developing and all" actual client!!!)

And after that I got to go visit Mark D. and the Adobe guys. Let me put it this way - if Mark complains about the office you should feel sorry for him - they live in a dungeon atm... :-D

But it'll get really cool when they are done redecorating the place. Mark filled me in on a lot of cool stuff - and let me just say that Adobe certainly are not being lazy in regards to Flash Lite and its offspring. They have a lot of interesting projects going on - which will all see the light of day soon.

So I have said it before and I'll keep saying it till they throw me out of the bar: The future looks bright for Flash Lite. And it even rhymes. Maybe I should take up writing... Hang on. That's what I am doing... anyways - back to business.



Today have been an amazing day - apart from having the benefit of the really hot Thai food i had with Mark last night - was really tasty though :-)



Today I have been at a cool private club called "the Hospital" here in London. Apparently it's where all the cool TV and Film people hang out. I have been there today for an "Inspirational Day".

The meeting was called by Joost and hosted by a danish company called "We love people". Also attending was a lot of other cool people from cool companies such as Frukt, MTV, Dopplr.com and Design Go and of course Little Big Ideas.

The reason for the meeting was for everyone to inspire one another. And for everyone to bring one problem to the table. We got a lot of fun out of that. From our issue on how to convince people to believe in Flash Lite apps to how to relaunch pop stars and how to keep innovating when you are a market leader and are being pushed for new products constantly.


So we talked about everything - from the worlds impending doom to social networking and how you counter all the people quoting stats by creating counterstats that you invent on the spot :-)


The main inputs I am taking with me are:

• We got a really cool new take on our business model - and maybe we are moving some of the stuff we do in a wrong direction - definately worth spending more time on.
  
• Got some cool thoughts about how we scale production to be able to be small - we have to think about the ultimate in personalization - producing just one of something has immense user value as compared to producing 1.000.000. And with new production tools and better factories this sort of thing will start making more and more sense to manufacturers as they can produce unique products much cheaper.
  
• It is also funny how all of this social networking activity that we are seeing with facebook, myspace and youtube and what have you is in reality the ultimate conclusion of the "me" generation - it is very egocentric by nature but creating value for networks. Something to ponder in that I think...
  
• Another cool concept that was thrown into the mix was the thought that to solve problems you don't have to create solutions. You have to gain complete understanding of the problem and then you will be able to create unusual solutions or even unique solutions.
  
• The last thing i'll mention here is the notion of not always letting the users come to you - sometimes you'll benefit from going to the users.

Hmmm and of course we got the advice of always giving our clients the option between fear and greed as the motivating factor for dealing with us...Fear being the best option :-)


Tomorrow it's back to the grind - but its been great with a full day to focus on all the theory and the reasons why we do what we do. I hope this forum will be an ongoing thing and will look forward to meeting this crowd again

Location based marketing

OK - so lets assume we have all the technical aspects of location based services figured out. Then what? Will we experience a world like in Total Recall where every monitor and news feed in the world will be personlazid to you? A world where we cannot get away from the marketing and messaging pushed at us from every marketer in the world? Will we not be able to walk around the mall with out being carpet bombed with messages from every little store around? Our phones dinging like a late night in Vegas with all of the incoming messages?

I strongly feel that location based contextual marketing is just a matter of time. How do we as developers of such services ensure that the user still gets a good experience? How do we ensure that we do not create a world where we all long after spam e-mail because it was so much better that the hell our phones have become?

Any thoughts on this? PLease let me know :-)

Of course the main issue will be getting the users acceptance of what you can and cannot do on the handset. Also I think maybe services that will allow the user to identify what kind of messaging he or she wants will play a major role. On the other hand we don't want this to get so complex that the users don't understand it...

Looking forward to hearing some of your thoughts

OK so FL is not 99%+ penetration - so what do you tell your clients?

Yesterday we started a discussion on what Adobe could and should share with us developers in regards to penetration data and market data. And thats all well and good. Adobe should by all means share what they can - that just benefits us all. But I really don't like the accusatory tone in the discussion. After all what possible reason would Adobe have for not making all of our lives easier?

So therefore I conclude that Adobe are doing their very best to help us all. Not enough all of the time but surely the best they can. After all they started shipping FL enabled phones a little more than a year ago and have - as best we can see managed to already be present on somewhere in the region of 20% of European phones. And a lot more japanese phones. And the work they are doing with Verizon will probably mean that sometime soon we'll see a lot of phones in the US also with some form of FL capability or another. So lets not bash Adobe to much - they just need a little friendly spanking once in a while so they do not become to complacent :-) But lets focus on how to use the possibilities we have right now.

In our daily work we approach a new company on average 3 times a week (and keep in mind we a from Denmark which is like the smallest country in the known universe). We always get a great reception and always manage to get a great WOW effect from what we present - and then someone asks: But how many people can actually see this?

In the beginning we tried all manner of ways to get around this question. We lied. We told half truths. We invented convenient truths. But since we have started telling the actual truth - that we don't really know but all our research indicate around 15-20% today. - we get a lot more attention. Because our clients are not stupid. They know that 15-20% today will lead to 50-60 maybe 70% tomorrow and that the mobile world is moving really quickly :-) And they know that if they sign of anything today it will take 3-6 months on average to hit the public anyway...

We also do our own little field study where we take in all of the advertising about mobile phones we can and then compare the phones being advertised against FL compatibility. And this is very encouraging. In Denmark its some 75-80% at the moment. I would encourage all of you to create similar stats - ours can be seen here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pjKq2RPI6RF7DNPRV8VGdCA&hl=en_US. If others create similar documents for differentt countries we could all easily compare notes and get a broader picture of the world tomorrow - without having to purchase this info for a fortune - and besides - clients really dig this go get 'em attitude of doing it yourself :-)

So the story we push to our potential clients now is that they have a great opportunity to become first movers in the mobile space. And where 8 months ago people just had to be able to talk about mobile to be cool, today they actually have to know because they have to build something mobile to be cool. And that makes our everyday a lot easier.

So in short i guess its up to us as developers to invent our own business cases - Adobe can't be expected to invent them for us after all - and then we have to find convincing stories to sell to our clients. After all they are no different than end users - our clients also buy engaging mobile experiences and great stories...

Hope I can inspire some of you to focus more on creating usable content and getting the FL content ball moving as fast as Adobe has moved the FL player ball out there...

Branded content - and why FL is so much more than games...

So you all are hooked on mobile gaming. Which is great. And fun. And addictive if done right. And FL is a great tool for creating great little mobile games. No we cannot do Fifa 2008 or something like that - but we can create a hell of a Sudoku or Black Jack experience :-)

But something else we can do is create branded experiences for clients. Branded games. Branded content. Access to databases. Access to otherwise unreachable data. And for this FL 1.1 is a really cool tool. It allows us to develop rapidly. To create a consistent and very userfriendly experience. To create and maintain a data connection. And to deliver on the promise of why Mobile Marketing is such a powerful tool.

That promise is:If we can get your brand into the pocket of the consumer, then we can deliver your messages in a much more personal engaging manner - and the way to do it - is Adobe Flash Lite.

Now this is something that clients really want to hear. Lots of benefit for them - and not so big development budgets. :-)

Of course penetration of the FL player is an issue. Of course the access to the mobile internet is an issue. Of course the maturity of mobile content users is an issue. But they are not obstacles that cannot be overcome... We are working with lots of clients on lots of different projects with lots of different business models. But they all have in common that the mobile is a really cool platform - and that the potential for creating something unique in the field of marketing is enormous.

So I wanna get your feedback - how do you see this? Whats your impression of Flash Lite and og mobile marketing? And how do you see this evolving?

Check out http://wap.lbi.dk/samples.php for examples from your PC or Flash Lite enabled cell phone or device.

Information about FL phones from Adobe

Bill Perry from Adobe recently wrote on the Yahoo and Google Flash Lite groups:

"We (Adobe) have access to several 3rd party resources to get that type
of information but currently we're not able to broadly distribute all of
the information because of our licensing terms.

One of the things we're doing is to determine what would be relevant for
the broader community to aid them in business decisions when considering
FL as a mobile platform.

So going back to your question are you asking about all phones, or FL
only phones? Also what region of Europe? I'm not saying that I can
provide that information but it would help me better understand whatspecific details you're interested in."

This information is the single most crucial thing for us in convincing clients to go with FL as opposed to xHTML or Java solutions

We would love to be able to give out info like:

What is the exact penetration of FL enabled phones in Denmark, Scandinavia, Europe and the rest of the world.
What number of these are FL 1.1 and how many are FL 2.x
What is the breakdown per manufacturer? In Denmark SE and Nokia are about 85% of the market - what about the rest of the world?
What will happen in the 6 months - 12 months timeframe - what are the manufacturers aiming for in regards to FL?

In general we need ammunition to help fire bullets when our clients kill FL projects because of the low percentage penetration in handsets today. Because our clients can not think in a broader spectrum than "if it isn’t 100% penetration, we can't use it" - and even when we then try to get them to give us examples of what actually has 100% penetration and they fail does it help them see the light...

Also in my opinion we as a community should start focusing more on developing for FL 1.1 and forget about higher versions. Penetration wise the rates are so low and besides - on most of the phones using stuff like the XML socket connections and high end programming just leads to poor user experiences because we all seem to think the phones have 4 gig ram and dual core processors :-)

You can do amazing stuff with 1.1 and you can actually have a reasonable penetration - our best bet is that its around 15-20% here in Denmark but we are seeing the beginning of the ketchup effect starting to happen now... And besides I think we should all look back at where we were 6-7 years ago when you couldn't really program anything in Flash - still some amazing user experiences evolved in that time. Stuff that we probably all have learned from and that have helped us get here today. It seems to me that we all are starting to focus too much on geeky techno stuff instead of actually creating cool content, that works in the real world on real peoples phones.

That attitude is the one that has gotten us clients like Nokia, Vertu, Carlsberg, ViaSat, Golfbox and others. And I think it would help us all a lot if more people would get into the beautiful no arrays, no script, timeline based world of FL 1.1 :-) The world just isn't ready for anything else at the moment...